Dear Friends and Clients of PCWA,
Keep Calm and Carry On
Morgan and I just returned from presenting to a room full of financial advisors, and one of my favorite questions to ask was this: “How many of you have had clients call to liquidate their investment accounts at the absolute worst time?” Nearly every hand went up. It’s a reminder that our biggest challenge as investors isn’t what’s happening in the markets—it’s managing the voice in our heads telling us to panic when things feel uncertain.
What the Data is Telling Us
Despite headlines that might suggest otherwise, the data continues to paint a resilient picture. The IMF recently corrected their global growth forecasts upward, with the US economy projected to grow around 2% in both 2025 and 2026. Additionally, 3Q 2025 GDP growth is currently forecasted by the Atlanta Fed to land between 3%-4%, which is tremendous growth for an economy of our size.
And it’s not just GDP data.
TSA travel numbers and weekly year-over-year same store sales data show Americans are out spending, traveling, and engaging with the economy in ways that reflect genuine confidence. When people are booking flights and shopping, that’s real economic activity—not theoretical models.
The Best House in the Neighborhood
Here’s what we continue to remind ourselves and our clients: while the US certainly has its challenges, it remains the best house in the global neighborhood. Our capital markets offer unmatched depth and liquidity, our culture of innovation and entrepreneurship continues to drive progress, and our economic scale and resilience provide a foundation that few other countries can match.
There will always be reasons not to invest—wars, political uncertainty, market volatility. But history has shown us time and again that the worst decision you can make, given a long enough time horizon, is not to invest.
What We’re Watching
As we head into year-end reviews, we’re continuing to monitor your portfolios closely and are making adjustments where appropriate. Interest rates are coming down, employment remains solid despite some softening, and markets have shown remarkable resilience in the face of significant headwinds.
We’re also excited to share something new with you in the coming months: an innovative income alternative strategy that we believe could be a valuable addition to many portfolios. We look forward to discussing this with you.
Time In, Not Timing
At the end of the day, successful investing isn’t about timing the market or picking the perfect moment to buy or sell. It’s about time in the market, combined with disciplined coaching and a plan you can stick to when emotions run high.
That’s our job—to be your voice of reason when the headlines scream panic, and to help you prepare for multiple futures rather than trying to predict one specific outcome.
We’re looking forward to connecting with you at your year-end review. Until then, please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or concerns.
Here’s to staying calm and carrying on,
Josh Flade
P.S. — If you’d like to dive deeper into any of the economic data we’re tracking, feel free to reach out. We love talking about this stuff.
